On Nov. 8, 2016, I was in Ottawa, Canada, at our presidential election party. As the U.S. Ambassador to Canada at the time, I strictly adhered to the Hatch Act and never publicly endorsed or supported a political candidate. But in my heart, I was excited by the prospect of potentially serving under the first female president. That dream ended quickly that evening.
We learned that Americans living abroad have the legal right to vote, but many didn’t know it.
In the days and months that followed Hillary Clinton’s loss, my wife Vicki and I began analyzing what happened. We learned that Americans living abroad have the legal right to vote, but many didn’t know it. And some of those who knew they could vote, didn’t know how.
The State Department estimates there are about 9 million Americans living abroad, with approximately 6.5 million eligible voters. But in 2016, a mere 512,696, or only about 8% of estimated eligible voters, had a ballot counted. Clinton lost Michigan by less than 11,000 votes, and we were confident there were many Americans living next door in Canada who could have legally voted in Michigan. She lost the Electoral College because of a handful of battleground states — around 77,000 votes combined between Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — and we were convinced Americans living abroad globally could have made up that difference.
In 2020, Vicki and I approached the Biden campaign and, with a bit of data and a lot of enthusiasm, convinced them to let us lead a voter-abroad effort to educate Americans about their options. Despite hurdles thrown up by the Covid pandemic, we engaged former U.S. ambassadors, social media influencers, and importantly, the organization Democrats Abroad, to convince Americans living outside the country to go to votefromabroad.org to register, request a ballot, and, of course, vote.
Joe Biden ultimately earned 7 million more votes than Donald Trump, but the battle for the Electoral College was incredibly close. I will never forget those days immediately after Election Day, when Georgia official Gabe Sterling announced there were still ballots coming in from overseas. (Georgia’s overseas ballots were falsely held up as evidence of fraud in 2020, even though three different state audits found absolutely no evidence of impropriety.)
In the end, Biden’s Electoral College win hinged on a few tens of thousands of votes. Biden won Georgia by 11,779 votes, and the state counted 18,475 votes from overseas. He won Arizona by 10,457, with more than 18,000 votes coming in from overseas. In total, almost 900,000 Americans living abroad voted successfully in 2020, significantly more than in 2016. But according to Reuters, even this number was just a fraction of total eligible overseas voters.
In 2024, we think this effort is even more important as Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump appear locked in an incredibly close race. That’s why the Democratic National Committee announced in August that it would spend $300,000 to help register Americans living abroad, according to Reuters. This is a historic push, focusing on Mexico and Europe.
With Covid (somewhat) behind us, students are once again studying overseas around the world, businessmen and women are once again transferring to foreign offices, and many, many Americans are traveling for pleasure.
Our voter registration site shows nearly 97% of those who have registered consider themselves Democrat or independents. Anecdotally, Democrats Abroad estimate more than 75% of all votes from abroad lean liberal.
This partisan breakdown makes sense. In addition to the issues voters face at home, like women’s reproductive health access and economic stability, U.S. foreign policy and the way the world views Americans and American business remains an important concern this election. The continuation of the U.S. as a multilateral partner and trusted ally is highly consequential to Americans abroad. The international brand and stature of the U.S. is similarly significant. Another Trump presidency could jeopardize all of those things.
There is still time to request a ballot, but Nov. 5, 2024 is fast approaching. Foreign governments and foreign citizens should not involve themselves in U.S. elections, but Americans living overseas may very well decide who is our next president, and who controls Congress.
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